Global cotton output in the 2026/27 season is estimated at 25.9 million tons, which exceeds world consumption of 25.2 million tons.
“This indicates that both production and consumption are expected to remain close to current season levels, while world cotton trade is expected to slip by 2.7% to approximately 9.6-9.7 million tons,” according to the May 2026 issue of Cotton This Month.
The key market drivers that can impact include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt fertilizer supply chains, increasing input costs for producers. Severe drought in the United States is affecting most cotton-growing areas, raising the likelihood of abandonment.
Rising prices for synthetic fibers may improve cotton’s competitiveness; favorable conditions in China are expected to support strong yields and China is expected to remain the world’s largest producer with nearly seven million tons and will also be the leading consumer accounting for 32% of global use.
Global exports will continue to be led by Brazil, followed by the United States and Australia. On the import side, Bangladesh is projected to remain the world’s largest importer at 1.8 million tons, followed by China, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Türkiye.
World cotton ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to rise by 4% to 17.9 million tons, reflecting higher production and increased imports, particularly in China.
The ICAC Secretariat’s current Cotlook A price forecast for the 2025/26 season, based on current supply and demand estimates, ranges from 73 to 84 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 78 cents per pound.
