World cotton growers are set to harvest 117.3 million bales of 480 pounds each in the 2026/27 season, down 4% or 4.65 million bales as against last season’s crop.
This figure still edges out the five-year average of 116.7 million bales by a hair. Nearly every major producer is expected to see output shrink this year, with one notable holdout which is India.
Less land, lower yields
Worldwide planted area is pegged at 29.3 million hectares, a modest dip from 2025/26 and roughly 1.5 million hectares shy of the five-year norm.
But the bigger story is productivity. Average global yield is projected at 871 kg per hectare, a 4% drop from last season’s all-time high of 904 kg per hectare.
“In other words, this year’s smaller crop owes more to weaker yields than to shrinking farmland,” the USDA said in its July report.
The big four tighten their grip
China, India, Brazil, and the United States together are expected to supply 76% of the world’s cotton in 2026/27 — an even larger share than last year.
China remains the top producer at an estimated 33.5 million bales, though that’s a 2.3 million bale or a 6% decline from 2025/26.
Chinese farmers aren’t planting meaningfully less as acreage holds nearly steady at 3.0 million hectares, but yields are sliding 5% to 2,431 kg per hectare after last year’s record 2,556 per hectare.
India: the lone bright spot
India is bucking the global slowdown, with production forecast to rise about 1% to 24.0 million bales. Farmers are expanding acreage by roughly 300,000 hectares or 3% to 11.5 million hectares, enough to offset a modest yield decline.
Weaker monsoon rains are expected to trim yields by 9 kg or 2% to 454 kg per hectare, but the extra acreage more than makes up the difference.
Brazil, Pakistan, Australia all pull back
In Brazil, output is expected to fall 4% to 18.0 million bales as growers plant 90,000 fewer hectares. However, yields are climbing to a record 1,960 kg per hectare, the crop’s silver lining.
Output is projected to slip 200,000 bales to 5.1 million bales in Pakistan. Acreage is unchanged at 2.0 million hectares, so the entire decline traces back to yield, which is forecast to fall 4% or 22 kg to 555 kg per hectare.
Australia is forecast to have the steepest drop among major cotton producing countries. Production is expected to plunge a massive 33%, down 1.5 million bales to just 3.0 million bales.
Persistent water shortages are hammering both metrics: harvested area is expected to fall 31% or 145,000 hectares to 325,000 hectares, while yield will fall roughly 4% to 2,010 kg per hectare.
Image courtesy: Morgan Ferrar
