World output is forecast to slip to 118.0 million bales of 480 pounds each, in 2026/27, a fall of 4.1 million bales, or 3.4% from the earlier season. That is still marginally ahead of the five-year mean of 116.9 million bales.
The latest USDA report informs that the picture across the main growing nations is uneven. China, Pakistan, the US and Australia are all expected to harvest less, while India and Brazil are set for modest gains
Global harvested area is put at 29.6 million hectares or 73.2 million acres, barely changed and just 0.3% lower year on year.
The worldwide average yield is pencilled in at 867 kg per hectare or 773 lb per acre. That is 3% below the record set last season, though it would still rank as the second best ever recorded.
Concentration among leading growers
Cotton supply remains heavily skewed towards a handful of producers. The four biggest growers are expected to deliver 76% of the 2026/27 total, up 0.7 percentage points on the previous season.
China and India retain their positions at the top of the table, contributing 28% and 20% of world output respectively.
Chinese production is projected at 33.5 million bales, down 6% on 2025/26, reflecting a smaller planted footprint and weaker yields. Yields are forecast at 2,431 kg per hectare, 5% under last year’s record, which was achieved when near-perfect growing conditions prevailed in Xinjiang.
Indian output is forecast at 24.0 million bales, an increase of 1%, or 200,000 bales, on 2025/26. A slight reduction in harvested area is more than compensated for by better yields.
Area is expected to hold broadly steady at 11.5 million hectares, while the national average yield is seen rising by roughly 1% to 454 kg per hectare.
Brazil is estimated to lift production by 1% to 19.0 million bales, marking a fourth consecutive annual record.
A record national yield of 2,068 kg per hectare, up 6%, more than makes up for a 4% contraction in harvested area, which falls by 90,000 hectares from 2025/26 to 2.0 million hectares.
Brazil should account for about 16% of world production, against 15% a year earlier, and stays in third place among producers for the fifth year running.
Pakistan’s crop is projected to fall by 300,000 bales, or 6%, from 2025/26 to 5.0 million bales. Harvested area is anticipated to shrink by 5% or 100,000 hectares to 1.9 million hectares, and a lower projected yield compounds the reduction. The yield is forecast to ease marginally to 573 kg per hectare.
Australian production is projected to plunge by 33% as anticipated drought conditions reduce both area and yield.
Harvested area is forecast to drop by 31% or 150,000 hectares, while yields are expected to fall by 4% to 2,010 kg per hectare.
Image courtesy: Britanicca
