Although an increase in world mill cotton use is projected, world cotton trade in the 2026/27 season is estimated to decrease slightly to 43.3 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds).
Lower exports estimated for Australia are partially offset by small gains for the United States and India, with Brazil’s exports projected unchanged in 2026/27.
The leading cotton exporters, Brazil and the United States are forecast to account for a combined 63% of global cotton exports in 2026/27.
Competition between Brazil and the United States has grown as Brazil’s cotton production increased significantly in recent years which provided additional supplies available to the world market.
As a result, Brazil’s exports increased, and it surpassed the United States in 2023/24 as the largest cotton exporter.
For 2026/27, Brazil is forecast to export a record 15.0 million bales of cotton once again in 2026/27, accounting for 34.5% of global trade.
“The United States is expected to contribute about 28.5% or 12.3 million bales of world cotton trade in 2026/27,” the latest USDA report informed.
Lower exports are forecast for Australia at 4.5 million bales as reduced supplies are anticipated in 2026/27 while exports by India at 1.5 million bales are projected to rebound from a two-decade low.
Vietnam is expected to be the leading cotton importer in 2026/27 as imports are projected to increase 200,000 bales from the year before to a record 8.0 million bales and will account for 18.5% of global imports.
Bangladesh’s cotton imports are projected at 7.6 million bales in 2026/27, a rebound of 200,000 bales but well below 2021/22’s 8.45-million-bale record.
For China, cotton imports are projected to account for 16% of the world total and are forecast to import 7.0 million bales of cotton in 2026/27, equal to the previous year.
However, Chinese cotton imports in 2026/27 will be well below 2023/24’s 15.0 million bales when China imported significant amounts to restock the national reserve.
Other major importers include Pakistan and Turkey, where 2026/27 cotton imports are projected at 5.0 million bales and 4.8 million bales, respectively.
Image courtesy: DWIJ
