In its latest June report, the USDA has kept unchanged US cotton production projection, at 13.3 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds) for the 2026/27 season, 4% below the 2025/26 crop and the lowest estimate since 2023/24’s 12.1 million bales.
Upland production is estimated at 13.0 million bales, compared with 13.5 million bales last season. The extra-long staple (ELS) crop is estimated at 325,000 bales, compared with 405,000 bales for the 2025/26 crop.
As spring planting approached for the 2026 crop, cotton harvest-time prices were similar to a year ago while competing crop price expectations were slightly below a year ago for corn and slightly above for soybeans.
As a result, the relatively small price differences reflect the modest change in 2026/27 cotton acreage intentions.
USDA’s March Prospective Plantings indicated an approximate 4% increase in 2026/27 cotton area compared with last season to 9.64 million acres.
Weather, in addition to price movements since early spring, is also expected to play a role in the final cotton planted area. Drought conditions have been more prevalent this year across the cotton belt.
In early May 2026, 98% of the cotton production area was affected by drought. Conditions improved somewhat with recent rainfall, but 79% of the cotton area continued under drought conditions as of early June.
Despite the improvement, the share of area under drought remains significantly above the 6% reported in early June 2025. US cotton planting progress this year has generally tracked last season and the 5-year average.
As of the first week of June 7, 77% of the forecast cotton acreage had been planted, slightly ahead of 2025 but equal to the 2021–25 average.
US cotton harvested area is forecast at approximately 7.4 million acres in 2026/27, nearly 6% or 450,000 acres below the final 2025/26 estimate.
The current estimate reflects a 10-year weighted average abandonment by region, with the Southwest adjusted to reflect moisture conditions thus far this season.
US abandonment is projected at nearly 23.5%, compared with approximately 15.5% in 2025/26. The 2026/27 cotton yield based on a 5-year weighted average, is forecast at 866 pounds per harvested acre.
The 2026/27 national yield is expected to rebound slightly from last season but remains below each of the previous three years.
Image courtesy: NPR
