World cotton production for the 2026/27 season is pegged at 118.0 million bales of 480 pounds each, a fall of 4.1 million bales or 3.4 percent on the prior year, though still marginally above the five-year mean of 116.9 million bales.
Prospects vary across the leading growers, with most expected to see lower crops. China, Pakistan, the US and Australia are all set for reductions, whereas India and Brazil are tipped for modest gains.
Global harvested area is forecast at 29.6 million hectares (73.2 million acres), virtually flat and just 0.3 percent below last year.
Worldwide yield is projected at 867 kg per hectare (773 pounds per acre), down 3 percent from last year’s record peak, yet still the second best ever recorded.
Output remains heavily concentrated, with the four largest producers expected to supply 76 percent of the 2026/27 total, a rise of 0.7 percentage points on the previous season.
China and India should retain the top two positions, contributing 28 percent and 20 percent of world production respectively.
China’s crop is projected at 33.5 million bales, 6 percent lighter than in 2025/26, reflecting reduced area as well as weaker yield. Its yield is put at 2,431 kg per hectare, 5 percent below last year’s record.
India’s production is forecast at 24.0 million bales, up 1 percent or 200,000 bales over 2025/26, as a slight contraction in harvested area is outweighed by better yields.
Indian area is expected to hold broadly steady at 11.5 million hectares, while the national yield is seen about 1 percent higher at 454 kg per hectare.
Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is estimated to rise 1 percent year on year to 19.0 million bales, marking a fourth consecutive annual production record.
A record national yield of 2,068 kg per hectare more than compensates for a 4-percent contraction in harvested area.
Brazilian area is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, down 90,000 hectares from 2025/26, with yield projected to climb 6 percent in 2026/27.
The country is expected to supply roughly 16 percent of world output in 2026/27, against 15 percent previously, and holds on to its position as third-largest producer for a fifth straight year.
In Pakistan, 2026/27 production is projected to fall by 300,000 bales or 6 percent from 2025/26 to 5.0 million bales.
Harvested area is anticipated to shrink 5 percent or 100,000 hectares to 1.9 million hectares, and a weaker projected yield adds to the decline. Pakistan’s yield is forecast to ease slightly to 573 kg per hectare.
Australia’s 2026/27 output is projected to plunge 33 percent, driven by lower area and yield amid anticipated drought.
Australian harvested area is forecast to drop 31 percent or 50,000 hectares, while yield is expected to slip 4 percent to 2,010 kg per hectare.
Image courtesy: ANEA
