Cotton producers in Brazil are preparing to expand the planted area for the 2027 crop, driven by the recovery in international cotton prices, which has made the fibre more competitive compared to other crops.
However, a larger cotton area in Brazil is unlikely to result in higher production, as El Niño threatens productivity and reduces the narrow window in which cotton is sown after the soybean harvest.
The lack of rain in the Central-West region, the country’s main producing area, is the central risk to production, due to which supply of cotton is expected to shrink for the second consecutive year, even with the expansion of the planted area.
The area planted with cotton in Brazil is expected to increase by 4.4% in the 2027 crop season. El Niño increases the risk of drought in the Midwest, the country’s main cotton-growing region, threatening productivity in 2027.
However, cotton production is expected to fall to approximately 3.83 million metric tons in 2027 season, roughly 1.5% below the current harvest, even with a 4.4% expansion in planted area.
This difference stems from lower productivity, estimated at 1.85 tons per hectare in a base scenario, which drought in an El Niño year could further reduce, negating the effect of the expansion.
“Even with a smaller harvest, Brazil is expected to maintain its leadership in global cotton trade, with exports projected at around 3.05 million metric tons,” StoneX reported.
Brazilian cotton exports are projected at around 3.05 million metric tons in 2027, a decrease of approximately 7.6% compared to the 3.3 million tons projected for 2026.
