Fresh forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture point to a tightening global cotton market in the year ahead, with consumption outpacing output and inventories shrinking as a result.
According to the agency’s July report for the August 2026–July 2027 cotton year, textile mills globally are expected to consume 122.0 million bales of 480 pounds each, marking a 2% uptick from the current season.
If realized, this would represent the second-strongest consumption figure the market has seen since the 2017/18 season.
The growth in demand is not confined to a single region. Every major textile country is projected to either hold steady or increase its cotton usage next season, with no country expected to pull back.
Three countries in particular, China, India and Pakistan are forecast to account for three-quarters of the entire increase in global mill consumption, underscoring their continued dominance as the world’s primary textile manufacturing hubs.
On the supply side, the picture looks considerably tighter. Global cotton output is projected to fall to 117.3 million bales, a decline of roughly 4.65 million bales, or about 4%, compared with the current marketing year.
Nearly every major cotton-growing nation is expected to see reduced harvests next season, with India standing out as the sole exception among top producers likely to buck the downward trend.
This combination of rising demand and falling supply is expected to squeeze global inventories.
With mill consumption on track to exceed production for the first time in recent seasons, analysts anticipate that worldwide ending stocks will contract meaningfully.
The USDA projects global stockpiles will finish the 2026/27 season at 71.2 million bales, a drop of approximately 4.5 million bales, or 6%, from current levels.
Every major producing country is expected to contribute to this drawdown, signaling a broad-based tightening across the global cotton supply chain rather than a phenomenon isolated to any single market.
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