Worldwide cotton output for the 2026/27 season is forecast to reach 117.3 million bales, marking a 4% shortfall or 4.65 million bales of 480 pounds each against the preceding year’s figure, though this remains marginally ahead, by under 1% of the five-year benchmark of 116.7 million bales.
“Looking across the major producing nations, every single one is expected to register a year-on-year fall in output for 2026/27, with India standing out as the sole exception,” the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) informs.
Globally, the area under cotton cultivation for 2026/27 is pegged at 29.3 million hectares or 72.4 million acres, representing a modest pullback from 2025/26 and sitting just under 1.5 million hectares beneath the five-year norm.
Meanwhile, worldwide cotton yield is projected to come in at 871 kilograms per hectare or 777 pounds per acre, a decline of close to 4% from the previous season’s all-time high of 904 kg per hectare.
Production remains heavily concentrated within a handful of nations, with China, India, Brazil and the United States together set to account for 76% of anticipated global supply in 2026/27 — a slight uptick from the prior season.
China and India are poised to retain their positions as the world’s foremost cotton growers throughout 2026/27, delivering 29% and 20% of global supply respectively.
Chinese output is forecast at 33.5 million bales for 2026/27, representing a drop of 2.3 million bales or 6% versus the year before. The bulk of this reduction stems from weaker national yields rather than acreage, given that harvested area is only expected to edge marginally lower, to 3.0 million hectares.
China’s yield per hectare is anticipated to fall by 5% to 2,431 kg, a step down from the record 2,556 kg per hectare achieved in 2025/26.
India, by contrast, is projected to produce 24.0 million bales, roughly 1% higher than 2025/26, as an expansion in planted area more than compensates for weaker yields. Harvested area is expected to climb to 11.5 million hectares, up by 300,000 hectares or 3% from the prior season.
India’s cotton yield is forecast to slip 2% or down 9 kg per hectare to 454 kg per hectare, a consequence of weaker-than-usual monsoon rainfall.
Turning to Brazil, output is expected to contract by 750,000 bales or 4% to reach 18.0 million bales, driven by a reduction in cultivated area even as yields are set to rise modestly. Brazilian harvested area is also forecast to shrink by 90,000 hectares or 4% to 2 million hectares, whilst yield is anticipated to hit a record 1,960 kg per hectare.
Pakistan’s 2026/27 harvest is projected to fall by 200,000 bales compared with the previous year, settling at 5.1 million bales. With cultivated area holding steady at 2.0 million hectares, unchanged from 2025/26, the decline is attributable entirely to weaker yields, which are forecast to come in 22 kg per hectare, 4% below the prior year’s level, at 555 kg per hectare.
Australia, meanwhile, faces the steepest contraction of all, with production expected to fall by a third or 1.5 million bales to 3.0 million bales in 2026/27. Persistently diminishing water supplies underpin both the reduced acreage and lower yield estimates.
Australian harvested area is forecast to drop by 31% or 145,000 hectares to 325,000 hectares, whilst national yield is projected to fall by roughly 4% to 2,010 kg per hectare.
Image courtesy: Grain Central
