The international cotton market is bracing for a smaller trading year ahead. Total world cotton trade is expected to hit 43.3 million bales in 2026/27, a step down from the current season, even as textile mills around the globe ramp up their consumption of the fibre.
Imports: India’s retreat outweighs everyone else’s gains
Total import volumes are penciled in at roughly 600,000 bales of 480 pounds each, lower than 2025/26, a 1% dip. The culprit isn’t broad-based weakness, but it’s concentrated almost entirely in one country.
India, which built up substantial inventory during the current season, is expected to cut its purchases nearly in half, sliding from 4.6 million bales down to just 2.5 million bales in 2026/27.
That drop is large enough to swamp gains everywhere else. Vietnam is set to hold onto the top importer spot it claimed for the first time last season, buying 8.0 million bales to feed its garment and textile sector—matching its own all-time high.
“Bangladesh sits in second place and is actually growing its purchases, up 2.5% or by 200,000 bales to 7.6 million bales, its strongest showing in two years,” the latest USDA report informs.
China rounds out the top three importers, holding steady at 7.0 million bales; even with a lighter harvest expected domestically, Beijing plans to lean on stockpiles rather than boost buying abroad.
Exports: Brazil & US still dominate, but both ease back slightly
On the selling side, Brazil and the United States remain the twin pillars of the export market, together accounting for nearly 63% of cotton traded globally.
Brazil will export an estimated 15.0 million bales in 2026/27, but 300,000 bales less than in 2025/26 before, reflecting a tighter domestic supply.
But that’s still enough to keep it in the top spot for a fourth straight year, a streak that began when it first overtook the US in 2023/24.
The United States, meanwhile, is projected to inch up less than 1% or 100,000 bales to 12.3 million bales, good for a 28% share of the global export pie versus Brazil’s 35%.
Australia rounds out as the third-biggest exporter at 10% of world trade, though its shipments are expected to tumble more than 20% to 4.5 million bales, a hangover from a weaker 2025/26 harvest now working its way to market.
Stockpiles Shrink to a Multi-Year Low
Warehouses worldwide are expected to hold noticeably less cotton by the close of 2026/27. Global ending stocks are forecast at 71.2 million bales, down 6% or 4.5 million bales from the prior year, the first time in three seasons that mill consumption has outpaced production.
That would push stockpiles to their lowest point since 2021/22, with every major producing nation seeing inventories decline.
China still sits atop the stockpile rankings with 35.5 million bales—half the world’s total—even as its own reserves edge down slightly.
India follows with roughly 10.4 million bales or down 1 million, representing about 14.5 % of the global stockpile.
The US and Brazil trail with 4.1 million and 3.4 million bales, respectively, while Australia’s reserves are projected to fall to just 2.4 million bales, its thinnest cushion since 2019/20.
The upshot: with stocks shrinking and mills using more, the global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 58.4%, well under the five-year average of 63.7%.
Image courtesy: Vecstock by Freepik
