The latest projections from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) point to another year of expanding cotton consumption, with worldwide mill use for the 2026/27 marketing year (August to July) penciled in at 122.0 million bales, each weighing 480 pounds.
That represents a 2% uplift on the 2025/26 season just gone by and marks the second-strongest reading since 2017/18. Notably, no major spinning nation is expected to see its cotton usage fall next season; all are holding steady or growing.
Three markets alone, China, India and Pakistan are set to deliver three-quarters of the entire worldwide increase in mill consumption.
Should the forecast hold, 2026/27 marks the fourth consecutive season of growth in worldwide cotton processing, with usage climbing to close to 122.0 million bales — a 1.7%, or 2.0-million-bale, rise on 2025/26 and the strongest showing in six years.
Analysts point to broader economic expansion expected across calendar years 2026 and 2027 as a tailwind for cotton-based clothing demand, even as man-made fibres continue to erode cotton’s market share.
Among the leading spinning economies, only Vietnam is expected to hold flat rather than grow. Collectively, the five biggest consuming nations will account for close to 77% of world cotton use, a slightly larger slice than they held the previous season.
China is expected to retain its crown as the world’s foremost cotton consumer, underpinned by its position as a dominant supplier of finished apparel to global markets. The country’s mill use is forecast to reach 41.5 million bales, equivalent to 34% of the world total, an increase of 500,000 bales on 2025/26 and its strongest figure since the 2010/11 season.
India’s cotton processing sector is forecast to expand by 2%, adding 500,000 bales to reach 26.0 million, around a fifth of global demand. This would end a three-year plateau at 25.5 million bales and bring usage back in line with the all-time high recorded in 2020/21.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is expected to bounce back strongly, with mill use forecast to rise by 500,000 bales to 10.2 million, recovering from supply constraints that held back the industry last season. This would give Pakistan an 8% share of worldwide consumption.
Vietnam’s textile sector, which has grown into a key yarn supplier for Chinese manufacturers — is projected to consume a record 8.0 million bales, unchanged from the previous season. Elsewhere, Bangladesh and Turkey are forecast to consume 7.8 million and 6.8 million bales respectively, both broadly consistent with their three-year running averages.
With consumption now poised to outpace harvests, global inventories are heading lower. Season-ending stockpiles worldwide are projected at 71.2 million bales, down 4.5 million bales, or 6%, from the prior season, and every major producing nation is expected to see its own reserves shrink as part of this broader drawdown.
Image courtesy: IndiaMart
